The recent shortage of semiconductor is a hinder of everything, from toys to wind turbines.For this reason, semiconductor manufacturers are running for tremendous capital investment.
Semiconductor companies running to increase large -scale production
The world's largest Taiwanese -deducted Title (TSMC), the world's largest consignment production, announced on January 13 that its capital investment in 2022 will reach a maximum of $ 44 billion (about 5 trillion yen).It exceeded $ 30 billion in 21 years and is equivalent to three times the 19th year.The company announced in April last year that it will invest more than $ 100 billion in three years to increase its production capacity, but it is also higher than that.
The competitive US Intel is also planning to invest $ 28 billion this year.On January 21, the company announced that it would build two large factories in Ohio in US State in Ohio, which could be built in Ohio, and suggested that six new ones would be established.In that case, the total investment reaches $ 100 billion.
Samsung Electronics, the second leading semiconductor after TSMC, suggested that the capital investment in 22 years exceeded $ 33 billion last year.Relatively small semiconductor companies, such as the German Infinion Technologies, are also increasing investment.
According to the IC Insitice estimation of US research firms, the total capital investment in the semiconductor industry in 21 years has increased 34%year -on -year, and has been a major growth since 2017.The surge in this investment is a welcome news for client companies who have suffered a semiconductor shortage over the past year.But for the semiconductor industry, this is just a familiar pattern that has been repeated many times in the past.
Intel announced on January 26, and Samsung announced the next day, all of which increased sales significantly.The increase in sales has led to the expansion of production capacity, but the construction of a semiconductor factory takes more than two years, and the demand may decrease while waiting for completion.As a result, these boasts often disappear at once.
Semiconductor industry that repeats over -investment and under investment
The semiconductor business has been repeated over -investment and under investment many times since the 1950s, Malcolm Pennal, an analyst of Future Horizons (see the left graph).If you refer to the past, you are now over -supply.The problem is when it will overdose.
Many analysts believe that demand for smartphones begins to settle, especially in the world's largest smartphone market, China.U.S. researcher Gartner Alan Pri -Stree has been shining in the sales of personal computers whose demand has rapidly expanded due to rockdown (urban blockade) due to the expansion of the new colon virus infection.
A survey by US financial giant Morgan Stanley revealed that 55%of companies that buy semiconductors have been ordering double in the help of semiconductor supply, which has further expanded their demand.
If the inflation rate will rise and the interest rate is raised soon, there is a risk that economic growth may be brake, which will affect semiconductor demand.Mr. Pen believes that the semiconductor cycle will turn over the supplier in the second or 23 years this year or 23 years.
Why this cycle is different from the past
However, even if the supply turns over this time, the impact on semiconductor manufacturers may differ depending on the manufacturer.TSMC's CEO (CEO), CEO, said on January 13 that the company was technically the most advanced and would not be affected by supply and demand.Most of the company's new production capabilities have already been determined to have a long -term contract with US Apple and other customers.Apple needs to supply cutting -edge semiconductors every time the latest iPhone is put in.
There is another reason why the semiconductor cycle may be different from the past.Before the US -China trade war, which is now in color of the semiconductor shortage and technical competition, reconsider how important politicians are in semiconductors in the modern economy and depends on only a few giant companies.Because I recognized it.
With the concern that some companies are overwhelming in the semiconductor field, multiple countries and regional monopoly legal authorities plan to acquire U.S. semiconductor design giant Nvidia for $ 40 billion.I waited for.It was reported on January 25 that the acquisition plan could be withdrawn, but if this was true, the authorities would have successfully played.
However, as a way to resolve the dependence on a small number of major companies, the measures chosen by the governments are to provide subsidies and attract semiconductor manufacturing from overseas (mainly East Asia).The US Ministry of Commerce published a report on January 25 on the pursuit of the Congress to pass a bill to make a $ 52 billion of semiconductor manufacturers to achieve this.The Senate has already approved the bill.
TSMC, President Liu Tokono, said in 20 years that the plan would not be able to proceed without a large subsidy when building a new factory in Arizona, USA.TSMC doesn't have much factory overseas.One of the reasons that Intel chose Ohio as a factory construction site is the preferential treatment provided by the state.The company's Gelsinger CEO was traveling around a financially affordable state that could provide preferential measures around the establishment of a factory.
Each country that focuses on attracting semiconductor production in its own country
The European Union (EU) may have tens of billions of dollars, but is trying to compete with the United States.The current market share in the EU world semiconductor production is around 10%, but it is trying to double it.
The South Korean government announced in May last year that there is a mission to invest 450 billion dollars in the next ten years in corporate capital investment in order to protect and develop South Korea's leading industries.The Japanese government also announced the support measures for the semiconductor industry last November.TSMC is expected to get about $ 3.5 billion (edited as a subsidy to the tip semiconductor factory built in Kumamoto Prefecture).
China is helping the US sanctions in sanctions, and the semiconductor is promoting an ambitious plan to develop an industry so that it does not have to rely on other countries, but has not succeeded so far.
Pen points out that if you throw taxes in addition to the aggressive capital investment plan of semiconductor manufacturers, excess production capabilities could increase further.In other words, politicians and semiconductor business owners need to stop and think.The greater the degree of boom, the harder the falling down.
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